The distance between conviction and certainty
Thinking clearly about a future that is still being built.
Notes on judgment.
A useful distinction
Conviction is a willingness to act on a view. Certainty is a claim about how little room remains for being wrong. They are different things, and confusing them makes it harder to learn.
A research process can support strong opinions while keeping their assumptions visible. The aim is to know what would change the conclusion.
Make the disagreement specific
Broad debates about whether a technology will matter are often less useful than disagreement about a particular dependency. How much does a workflow have to improve? Which part of the cost structure must change? What behavior needs to become normal?
Specific questions give new evidence somewhere to land. They also make it easier to distinguish a change in the world from a change in the story being told about it.
Keep a record
Writing is a tool for making that process inspectable. A dated question, a stated assumption, and an honest account of what remains unknown can be more valuable than a polished prediction.
This publication is intended as a place for that kind of thinking: provisional, curious, and open to revision.
This is an illustrative essay written for the website design preview.
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